RECTAL CANCER INCIDENCE IN ARKHANGELSK REGION: TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM PROGNOSIS BY THE DATA OF THE ARKHANGELSK REGIONAL CANCER REGISTRY

Introduction. More than 1 million new cases of rectal cancer (RC) are annually detected worldwide, and together with colon cancer this tumor is the 4th most frequent cause of cancer death.

Objective: To analyze short-term prognosis of RC incidence for certain population subgroups in the Arkhangelsk region, Russia.

Material and methods. The data on all primary RC cases in the Arkhangelsk region in the time period from 2000 to 2015 were selected. Crude (whole population) and age-standardized incidence rates were calculated depending on gender and place of residence (urban or rural). The ARIMA model (autoregressive integrated moving average) was chosen to analyze the variations of the time series and to estimate prognosis. To transform the series to a stationary form and to reduce dispersion, the first or second differences of their values and the natural logarithms were taken. The incidence values for the period 2016–2018 were predicted on stationary series of RC incidence from 2000 to 2015.

Results. Crude and age-standardized RC incidence rates in Arkhangelsk region increased from 14.4 and 11.4 in 2000 to 23.5 and 15.1 per 100,000 in 2015. Age-standardized RC incidence rates for males, females, urban and rural populations increased from 14.8, 10.1, 9.3 and 15.1 to 20.3, 12.6, 12.3 and 20.4 per 100, 000, respectively. Actual values of incidence rates among all population, male/female and rural/urban population in 2015 were within the confidence interval of the prognosis. The constructed prognosis model assumes an increase in the RC incidence among all population groups, which may cause the detection of 279 new cases by 2018; i.e. 16 cases (6%) more than in 2015.

Conclusion. The incidence rates of RC have been steadily increasing in all population groups, and the rate of growth depends only partly on the population ageing. The number of new patients is expected to increase by 6 % in 2018.

rectal cancer, cancer registry, incidence, short-term prognosis

1. Haggar F.A., Boushey R.P. Colorectal Cancer Epidemiology: Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Risk Factors. Clin Colon Rectal Surg. 2009 Nov; 22 (4): 191–7. doi: 10.1055/s-0029-1242458.

2. Winawer S., Classen M., Lambert R., Fried M. Colorectal cancer screening [Internet]. URL: http://www.worldgastroenterology.org/assets/downloads/en/pdf/guidelines/06_colorectal_cancer_screening.pdf (cited 21.10.2017).

3. GLOBOCAN 2012: estimated cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence worldwide in 2012 [Internet]. URL: http://globocan.iarc.fr/Default.aspx (cited 15.04.2017).

4. Kaprin A.D., Starinsky V.V., Petrova G.V. Malignant neoplasms in Russia: morbidity and mortality. Moscow, 2017. 250. (in Russian).

5. Lebedeva L.N., Valkov M.Y., Asakhin S.M., Krotov D.S., Krasilnikov A.V. Epidemiology of colon cancer: overview. Herald of the Russian Scientific Center of RAMS. 2016; 1: 5. (in Russian).

6. Bray F., Colombet M., Mery L., Piñeros M., Znaor A., Zanetti R., Ferlay J. Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Vol. XI (electronic version). Lyon: International Agency for Research on Cancer [Internet]. URL: http:// ci5.iarc.fr (cited: 06.11.2017).

7. Valkov M.Yu., Karpunov A.A., Coleman M.P., Allemani C., Pankratieva A.Yu., Potekhina E.F., Valkova L.E., Grjibovski A.M. The population-based cancer registry as a resource for research and practical healthcare. Human Ecology. 2017; 5: 54–62. (in Russian).

8. Vaktskjold A., Lebedintseva J.A., Korotov D.S., Tkatsjov A.V., Podjakova T.S., Lund E. Cancer incidence in Arkhangelskaja Oblast in Northwestern Russia. The Arkhangelsk Cancer Registry. BMC Cancer. 2005 Jul 19; 5: 82. doi: 10.1186/1471-2407-5-82.

9. Allemani C., Weir H.K., Carreira H., Harewood R., Spika D., Wang X.S., Bannon F., Ahn J.V., Johnson C.J., Bonaventure A., MarcosGragera R., Stiller C., Azevedo e Silva G., Chen W.Q., Ogunbiyi O.J., Rachet B., Soeberg M.J., You H., Matsuda T., Bielska-Lasota M., Storm H., Tucker T.C., Coleman M.P.; CONCORD Working Group. Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2). Lancet. 2015 Mar 14; 385 (9972): 977–1010. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62038-9.

10. Allemani C., Matsuda T., Di Carlo V., Harewood R., Matz M., Nikšić M., Bonaventure A., Valkov M., Johnson C.J., Estève J., Ogunbiyi O.J., Azevedo E., Silva G., Chen W.Q., Eser S., Engholm G., Stiller C.A., Monnereau A., Woods R.R., Visser O., Lim G.H., Aitken J., Weir H.K., Coleman M.P.; CONCORD Working Group. Global surveillance of trends in cancer survival 2000-14 (CONCORD-3): analysis of individual records for 37 513 025 patients diagnosed with one of 18 cancers from 322 population-based registries in 71 countries. Lancet. 2018 Mar 17; 391 (10125): 1023–1075. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)33326-3.

11. Dubovichenko D.M., Valkov M.Y., Karpunov A.A., Pankrat’eva A.Yu. Population-based assessment of the rectal cancer stage structure and incidence after implementation of the National Project “Health” and Allnational Dispensarization in the Arkhangelsk Region, Russia (the results of the preliminary study). Research’n Practical Medicine Journal. 2017; 4 (3): 23–32. (in Russian).

12. Dickey D.A., Fuller W.A. Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. J Am Stat Assoc. 1979; 74: 427–431.

13. Fung T.T., Brown L.S. Dietary Patterns and the Risk of Colorectal Cancer. Current nutrition reports. 2013; 2 (1): 48–55. doi:10.1007/s13668-012-0031-1.

14. Marley A.R., Nan H. Epidemiology of colorectal cancer. Int J Mol Epidemiol Genet. 2016 Sep 30; 7 (3): 105–114.

15. Lebedeva LN, Val’kov M.Yu., Asahin SM, Krasilnikov A.V. The population characteristics of colon cancer in the NordWest Russia: data of the regional cancer registry. Journal of the Russian Scientific Center of Roentgenoradiology. 2014; 14‑1: 6. (in Russian).

16. Mordovsky E.A., Soloviev A.G., Sannikov A.L. Socio-demographic and alcoholic status died of tumors in the working-age and in old age. Narcology. 2016; 2 (170): 13–19. (in Russian).

17. Soloviev A.G., Mordovsky E.A., Vyazmin A.M. Socio-demographic status of elderly and senile age people died from alcohol-attributable states in Arkhangelsk. 2014; 1: 165–171. (in Russian).